I. Market Overview

Against the backdrop of a general decline in commodity raw material prices in April, the negative electrode material market experienced weak supply and demand on both ends. The overall focus has been on cost reduction, with little demand for high-priced raw materials. As a result, many companies have opted to substitute needle coke with lower-priced petroleum coke instead. Both the prices of raw materials and processing fees for negative electrode materials have fallen to historically low levels, and market participants across the upstream and downstream sectors are adopting a cautious approach. To secure orders, companies have generally lowered their prices, while market demand remains weak and orders are scarce. Consequently, negative electrode material manufacturers continue to face significant pressure to sell off their inventories, and they are still primarily focused on clearing existing stock and procuring materials only as needed—adopting a rational procurement strategy for negative electrode materials. Overall, the trading atmosphere is unfavorable. The processing fee for graphite-based negative electrode materials has been reduced to near the cost level, reaching its lowest point in three years. Currently, all types of graphitization furnaces have room for optimization and improvement; reducing costs and enhancing quality remain long-term challenges that each manufacturer must address. With declining production costs for negative electrode materials and obvious price pressures from downstream markets, the overall performance of the negative electrode material market has been poor recently, lacking sufficient support to stabilize prices.

II. Upstream Raw Materials End

In the first quarter, petroleum coke prices plummeted sharply. A large volume of imported petroleum coke arrived at ports, driving petroleum coke inventories to high levels and ensuring an ample supply. However, overall demand from downstream enterprises remained moderate, with a strong wait-and-see attitude prevailing among buyers, who opted for procurement only as needed. After the Qingming holiday, the market began to show signs of improvement, and petroleum coke prices started tentatively rising. Downstream companies proactively stocked up in advance, but the price increase remained limited.

The needle coke market is operating weakly and steadily, with low order volumes and pressure to offload inventory. There are currently no significant positive factors on the demand side, and companies’ current operating rates remain poor. Currently, the operating rate for oil-based needle coke has already fallen below the required level. Forty percent—depleting inventory—is currently the primary task for enterprises. Only a few companies are producing coal-based needle coke, with their operating rates falling below 10%. Most needle coke producers are adjusting their production processes and developing needle coke products tailored to downstream applications. The price of coal-based needle coke ranges from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan per ton, while the price of oil-based needle coke ranges from 9,500 to 11,500 yuan per ton. The prices for raw coke from both coal and oil sources are between 6,500 and 7,500 yuan per ton.

The mainstream negotiation focus in the domestic coal tar pitch market continues to decline significantly. Although the holiday period is approaching, overall downstream demand for restocking remains weak. Meanwhile, as coal tar oil prices continue to fall, downstream markets are becoming increasingly cautious about purchasing coal tar pitch. Overall, deep-processing enterprises of coal tar oil are experiencing relatively low shipments, and some companies are facing considerable inventory pressure. As of this Thursday, the mainstream transaction reference price for modified asphalt in major producing regions is... 3,300 to 4,000 yuan per ton—some companies are even focusing their negotiations on new orders at even lower prices.

Regarding graphitization: This month, the graphitization OEM market is sluggish, and the operating rates of OEM companies are generally at... Between 20% and 40%, profits have been further squeezed. Although the market has seen some exceptionally low quotes, these are hardly sustainable as they almost break even with cost levels. The mainstream transaction prices currently range from 10,000 to 13,000 yuan per ton.

III. Downstream Demand Side

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, In March, production and sales of new-energy vehicles reached 674,000 units and 653,000 units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 44.8% and 34.8%, respectively, with the market share reaching 26.6%. From January to March, cumulative production and sales of new-energy vehicles totaled 1.65 million units and 1.586 million units, respectively, up 27.7% and 26.2% year-on-year, with the market share reaching 26.1%. Several provinces have continued their subsidy policies for new-energy vehicles. Coupled with price reductions by automakers and government subsidies, both fuel-powered and new-energy vehicles are competing fiercely for market share. As a result, demand in the powertrain market is recovering slowly, and the incremental demand remains relatively limited.

IV. Future Market Forecast

Against the backdrop of insufficient cost support and weak downstream purchasing intentions, there is still considerable room for negative electrode material prices to decline further. It will take some time for the overall market sentiment to pick up. Given the high level of market uncertainty, most negative electrode material companies are adopting a wait-and-see approach. In the long term, the rapid development of the entire new-energy industry has led to rapid capacity expansion across all segments, with a growing trend toward overcapacity—even in the negative electrode materials sector. Currently, the market lacks any significant positive news, and some negative electrode companies are relatively pessimistic about future prospects. As a result, the negative electrode materials market is expected to remain weak in the short term. However, as we enter the second and third quarters, the automotive market will gradually enter its peak sales season, which should boost demand for negative electrode materials and drive orders.