After the 2023 Spring Festival, the petroleum coke market continued its upward trend from before the holiday, with robust trading activity and prices remaining favorable. On the supply side, major refineries primarily relied on contracted orders, ensuring smooth shipments and generally stable pricing. As for independent refiners, petroleum coke prices showed mixed movements, with most experiencing increases ranging from 50 to 200 yuan per ton. Recently, refineries have been shipping smoothly, driving prices steadily higher; however, planned maintenance periods for refineries are scheduled for March and April. On the trading side, shipment patterns have become differentiated: sponge coke continues to sell slowly, while pellet coke faces no significant pressure in terms of sales. With consecutive price hikes in petroleum coke from independent refineries, some refineries have already shown signs of slowing down their shipments. Coupled with persistently high port inventories, it is expected that, in the short term, independent-refinery petroleum coke prices may still see some further increases, though the magnitude of these increases will gradually narrow. Meanwhile, low-sulfur coke prices from major suppliers may also see some upward adjustments in the near future.

1. Analysis of the Operating Rate of Delayed Coking Units

As of February 1, 2023, the weekly operating rate of delayed coking units at domestic refineries was 69.1%, down 1.58 percentage points from the pre-holiday level and up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year compared to 2022. During the Spring Festival holiday, some refineries adjusted their production levels, and the shutdown of certain refineries in Northeast China led to an overall downward trend in the operating rates of delayed coking units at refineries.

During the Spring Festival, domestic refineries primarily focused on fulfilling order contracts and maintaining high throughput. The high prices of imported coke have had a diminished impact on the domestic market. However, post-festival demand has been lackluster, with only a few companies making small-scale purchases to replenish inventories. Support from end-user markets has been modest, resulting in weak momentum for coke shipments. Meanwhile, the refined oil market remains relatively active. Consequently, after the festival, refineries have limited room to adjust their delayed coking unit operating rates.

2. Inventory Analysis

As of February 1, 2023, petroleum coke inventories at China's major domestic ports reached a new high in recent years, totaling 2.916 million tons—a 171,000-ton or 6.23% increase from the level before the Spring Festival and a 1.37 million-ton or 99.95% increase compared to the period following the 2022 Spring Festival.

Downstream carbon enterprises showed strong enthusiasm for stocking up ahead of the Spring Festival. During the holiday period, they largely fulfilled their order contracts and procured goods as scheduled, while the pace of petroleum coke shipments from ports slowed down. Imported coke prices continued to remain high, influenced by overseas markets; some imported supplies even saw price inversions, prompting shippers to adopt a cautious attitude and hold onto their cargoes. Moreover, with imported petroleum coke continuing to arrive at ports and enter storage during the Spring Festival, and given that road transportation logistics for some long-distance enterprises have yet to fully resume operations, traders mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach. As a result, market support remains weak, and port inventories continue to rise.

As shown above, following the Spring Festival, domestic petroleum coke supply remains at a high level, and port inventories of petroleum coke have reached yet another record high, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in February, refinery coke prices will continue to show a stable-to-upward trend.

[Disclaimer]: The price information provided in this article is sourced from various online platforms, including the internet and WeChat public accounts, and the copyright of such information belongs to the original sources. This information is intended solely for customers’ reference in making decisions and does not constitute direct advice for their decision-making. Customers should not rely on this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by customers are entirely unrelated to China Carbon Net. The purpose of publishing this article is to disseminate more industry information for reference only and does not imply endorsement of its views or verification of the accuracy of its content (including but not limited to text, images, data, and charts). China Carbon Net assumes no responsibility whatsoever for this article or for any consequences arising from its use. If you find any infringement, please contact us promptly for removal. Thank you.