This week, domestic prices for prebaked anodes remained stable, and overall production at prebaked anode manufacturers was steady. Currently, downstream electrolytic aluminum producers are highly active, resulting in robust demand for anodes. As a result, prebaked anode companies continue to focus primarily on fulfilling existing orders. With transportation challenges easing somewhat, most companies are now operating at a stable pace. However, in certain regions, transportation issues persist due to ongoing policy impacts. Coupled with high raw material prices, companies’ production loads remain generally moderate. Although prebaked anode prices have been rising consecutively since March, the sharp increase in raw material costs has significantly squeezed profit margins and intensified cash flow pressures.

        The raw materials market remains at a high level, and cost pressures on pre-baked anodes are becoming evident.

This week, domestic petroleum coke prices showed mixed trends, but overall remained at high levels. Coal pitch prices are also on the rise, further increasing cost pressures for prebaked anode raw materials. Based on raw material prices as of April 21, the anticipated price increase for prebaked anodes next month is expected to exceed 730 yuan per ton. In addition to the pressure from raw material costs, transportation expenses have also risen significantly due to COVID-19 prevention and control measures, with some regions experiencing increases ranging from 15% to 25%. Meanwhile, rising energy prices—such as those for natural gas—have also led to a notable increase in the production costs of prebaked anodes.

        Anode enterprises are maintaining stable production, and supply continued to grow in April.

Currently, most prebaked anode enterprises across China are operating steadily, and companies continue to focus primarily on production based on existing orders. However, due to the high prices of raw materials, enterprises are being more cautious in their procurement, with most opting for just-in-time purchasing and showing little willingness to stockpile materials. Moreover, in some regions where the epidemic situation remains severe and transportation is restricted, enterprises are relying mainly on drawing down their existing raw material inventories, resulting in slightly lower overall operational levels. Overall, the current production situation among supporting anode enterprises is generally good. Anode enterprises in Shandong and Henan—regions that serve as major production hubs for commercial anodes—have largely resumed normal operations. Consequently, the overall supply of prebaked anodes in April is expected to increase.

        Downstream production resumption is still underway, ensuring strong demand for pre-baked anodes in the later stages.

As of this week, China’s installed capacity for primary aluminum electrolysis has reached 43.771 million tons, with operating capacity standing at 40.273 million tons—a rise of 270,000 tons compared to the end of last month. By the end of this month, operating capacity is expected to increase further to around 40.3 million tons, representing a monthly increase of roughly 300,000 tons on a month-on-month basis—far lower than the over-one-million-ton increase seen in March. Given that the newly commissioned and resumed production capacity from March has undergone a certain ramp-up period, April’s average daily primary aluminum output could approach 110,000 tons, soon surpassing last year’s peak level. Under the backdrop of active resumption of downstream production, the market demand for pre-baked anodes is poised to see significant positive momentum in the coming period.

        Future Market Outlook

Due to the significant rise in prices of petroleum coke and coal tar pitch, the price of prebaked anodes is expected to increase by more than 730 yuan per ton next month. Although the price of prebaked anodes has risen markedly, the substantial increase in raw material costs has squeezed corporate profit margins, and cash flow pressures remain pronounced. As commercial anode producers in Shandong, Henan, and other regions resume stable production, the overall supply of prebaked anodes is set to increase.